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Jan 14, 2013
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yet the economy is -- the real economy is trading somewhat off its highs. if you look at europe, for example, where the headlines have been negative. the news flow has been awful. performance has been awful as well. so the market in europe has more reflected the performance of the real economy than it has here in the u.s. the fed qe program, the safe haven of the u.s. has caused money to flow to this part of the world. i think that leaves the u.s. a little pricier and perhaps more of a risk. >> it takes courage to fight the fed, though, right? >> absolutely. but ultimately and jack said it, fundamentals do matter. i think the market will reflect those. >> i heard active management does better in down markets than the index. they do better in the up markets. >> no question about it. and if you looked at the '08 to first quarter of '09 period, many people left them, haven't come back. god forbid we have another experience like that. then you'll see the index funds have a hard time recapturing the momentum. >> you see a blend of active and passive? >> i think
yet the economy is -- the real economy is trading somewhat off its highs. if you look at europe, for example, where the headlines have been negative. the news flow has been awful. performance has been awful as well. so the market in europe has more reflected the performance of the real economy than it has here in the u.s. the fed qe program, the safe haven of the u.s. has caused money to flow to this part of the world. i think that leaves the u.s. a little pricier and perhaps more of a risk....
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Jan 15, 2013
01/13
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chances are the economy is going to get better. wouldn't that make you want to buy stocks right now. >> it does. we're not -- we're actually a little bit more bullish, esespecially the first six months of the year. we still are expecting slow growth, commodities where we're shorting assets, but in terms of u.s. and in terms of international, we do expect growth, and we are excited about what's happening, but later on in the year i think it's going to be another story. >> what do you mean by that, later on in the year? what's going to be the upset later on in the year? >> there's a lot more issues coming out in terms of europe later in the year. right now it's all about -- it's all about expectations of positive growth that we have in the u.s., but, you know, we still have issues, and investors have got to focus on -- we've got an incredible spending problem. there's still problems in europe so we don't really believe that this year is going to be like last year, but we do expect small positive returns though. >> rick santelli, i wa
chances are the economy is going to get better. wouldn't that make you want to buy stocks right now. >> it does. we're not -- we're actually a little bit more bullish, esespecially the first six months of the year. we still are expecting slow growth, commodities where we're shorting assets, but in terms of u.s. and in terms of international, we do expect growth, and we are excited about what's happening, but later on in the year i think it's going to be another story. >> what do you...
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Jan 16, 2013
01/13
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grow the economy by bringing in some certainty to it. if he wants to fight hard for tax rate increases, he ought to be fighting just as hard for spending cuts. >> you know, governor, he made an interesting point during his news conference this week where he said if -- if this debate is just about reducing the fiscal deficit, he's on board and let's get it done, but he suspects that there are a lot of conservative republicans out there for whom this debate is about the bigger picture of the role the federal government plays in americans' lives, and he said that's not a debate he wants to have. he doesn't want to be cutting entitlement programs just because conservatives want to reduce the role of government in americans' lives. is it possible we're having two simultaneous debates at once here? >> well, he's got to reconcile the differences. almost like saying i know i'm overweight but don't ask me to go on a diet. i mean, there's got to be efficiencies found in the federal government. the fact that we're cutting spending doesn't mean that
grow the economy by bringing in some certainty to it. if he wants to fight hard for tax rate increases, he ought to be fighting just as hard for spending cuts. >> you know, governor, he made an interesting point during his news conference this week where he said if -- if this debate is just about reducing the fiscal deficit, he's on board and let's get it done, but he suspects that there are a lot of conservative republicans out there for whom this debate is about the bigger picture of...
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Jan 14, 2013
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economy hostage. here's the president. >> they will not collect a r ransra ransom in exchange for not crashing the american economy. the financial well being of the american people is not leverage to be used. the full faith and credit of the united states of america is not a bargaining chip. and they'd better choose quickly because time is running short. >> and house speaker john boehner responded quickly saying the house republican majority will do the responsible thing. will make sure the nation meets its obligations, will keep the government running. that's trying to take that specter of the government shutdown off the table. we've got a real confrontation brewing because the president says i'm going to break the habit of crisis-driven fiscal negotiations. and if he succeeds in that, somebody's going to have to break. we're going to find out pretty soon. because the debt ceiling could be hit in as little as one month from now. >> it's interesting that we still haven't had any ideas, though, on spen
economy hostage. here's the president. >> they will not collect a r ransra ransom in exchange for not crashing the american economy. the financial well being of the american people is not leverage to be used. the full faith and credit of the united states of america is not a bargaining chip. and they'd better choose quickly because time is running short. >> and house speaker john boehner responded quickly saying the house republican majority will do the responsible thing. will make...
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Jan 16, 2013
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what do you think that tells us on where we are in the economy? >> look at numbers of the last week or two, retail production numbers for december, and they were actually pretty good. of course, the employment numbers we already know were soiled, and this is in a period where the uncertainty over the fiscal cliff was reaching a maximum. you know, maria, you think that's pretty encouraging that the economy has managed to cope with a high level of uncertainty. now the thing that kind of bothers me though is i'm a little bit worried that this coping is flipping over to complacency. the vix is now at a six-year low, and it tells me that the market is discounting 100% probability that we get through the debt ceiling without any trouble. that seems too high to me. >> so do you think the market is expecting that? i mean, when would you expect a big change in terms of the interest rate scenario? >> in terms of the interest rate scenario, probably nothing this year. i mean, we're at least a couple years away from a higher move -- a move higher in interest
what do you think that tells us on where we are in the economy? >> look at numbers of the last week or two, retail production numbers for december, and they were actually pretty good. of course, the employment numbers we already know were soiled, and this is in a period where the uncertainty over the fiscal cliff was reaching a maximum. you know, maria, you think that's pretty encouraging that the economy has managed to cope with a high level of uncertainty. now the thing that kind of...
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Jan 21, 2013
01/13
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economy which means a lot to u.s. companies, but at the same time, the peso, if there is more pressure on that currency, what does that mean for us, do you think? >> so the peso has been pretty interesting because their central bank last week did a little bit of a 180 because they were expecting that they were going to be raising interest rates sometime here in 2013. and they kind of just pulled the rug out underneath it saying, you know, there's the potential that we might actually start to, you know, maybe reduce interest rates. [talking over each other] >> it was definitely something that caught participants by surprise, testing some previous 2012 lows there in terms of dollar mexico. it will be interesting to see if that trend continues. but mexico i think is a currency that we still want to be going into going forward. cheryl: one of the things we look on a daily basis during the market hours is what the euro is doing versus the dollar. always surprised me that the euro never went below like a $1.22 or so against
economy which means a lot to u.s. companies, but at the same time, the peso, if there is more pressure on that currency, what does that mean for us, do you think? >> so the peso has been pretty interesting because their central bank last week did a little bit of a 180 because they were expecting that they were going to be raising interest rates sometime here in 2013. and they kind of just pulled the rug out underneath it saying, you know, there's the potential that we might actually start...
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Jan 15, 2013
01/13
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debt as well as the global economy. according to rex macy it is. he thinks there's a good chance that risk fears will rise and, therefore, the market will pull back. will that be the moment for investors to get in. good to see you, gentlemen. thanks so much for joining us. what are you expecting in terms of this market 2013? >> sure. well, right now we're at 1472 on the s&p. we think it's going to go marginally higher from here, but it's not going to be a smooth ride. we've got a vix at 13 and change. that's too low. that's where the complacency comes from. you see it there. as we move into the debt ceiling debate, it can be far harder to solve than the taxes, we think the market can be down for a while, and before it comes back up. >> so you're looking for a decline, and perhaps that is an entry point for some. do you agree with that? >> i think any decline is an opportunity to buy, maria. i'm very, very bullish on u.s. equities and one of the main reasons i am the u.s. energy story which i think is a story that's not being told as well as it shou
debt as well as the global economy. according to rex macy it is. he thinks there's a good chance that risk fears will rise and, therefore, the market will pull back. will that be the moment for investors to get in. good to see you, gentlemen. thanks so much for joining us. what are you expecting in terms of this market 2013? >> sure. well, right now we're at 1472 on the s&p. we think it's going to go marginally higher from here, but it's not going to be a smooth ride. we've got a vix...
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Jan 18, 2013
01/13
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rowe price, we understand the connections of a complex, global economy. it's just one reason over 75% of our mutual funds beat their 10-year lipper average. t. rowe price. invest with confidence. request a prospectus or summary prospectus with investment information, risks, fees and expenses to read and consider carefully before investing. overmany discounts to thine customers! [old english accent] safe driver, multi-car, paid in full -- a most fulsome bounty indeed, lord jamie. thou cometh and we thy saveth! what are you doing? we doth offer so many discounts, we have some to spare. oh, you have any of those homeowners discounts? here we go. thank you. he took my shield, my lady. these are troubling times in the kingdom. more discounts than we knoweth what to do with. now that's progressive. >>> welcome back. a big change of heart on netflix. a top analyst who has been consistently bearish on netflix shares reversing course, now recommending buy it. meanwhile, another analyst looking at netflix this morning going the other way downgrading it to underweig
rowe price, we understand the connections of a complex, global economy. it's just one reason over 75% of our mutual funds beat their 10-year lipper average. t. rowe price. invest with confidence. request a prospectus or summary prospectus with investment information, risks, fees and expenses to read and consider carefully before investing. overmany discounts to thine customers! [old english accent] safe driver, multi-car, paid in full -- a most fulsome bounty indeed, lord jamie. thou cometh and...
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Jan 16, 2013
01/13
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the dividend will account for a larger share of the stock's total economy. liz: so the stock actually went up in price? >> i think we are headed back towards the 50s. it is an important trend and i think we are trending towards 50% there. liz: it's like we've been slammed in hammer. it's now a $4.36 price here. we like maggie, she's a smart leader, but you can't -- you talk about the dividends? >> it's important to look at the company. in total it has to have appreciation potential. liz: why canada? >> they surpass the u.s. on the economic freedom index. they are ahead of us now. liz: what are the metrics for the economic freedom? >> is a whole monetary fiscal policy. liz: is a great for businesses? >> it is. they ought to be the fiscal model of the g7. if you look at corporate taxes, they are all trending in the right direction from a public standpoint. the country has a lot of natural resources. liz: but you don't want to become like australia. >> in terms of being a natural resource country, they do have a lot of natural resources companies, but they have
the dividend will account for a larger share of the stock's total economy. liz: so the stock actually went up in price? >> i think we are headed back towards the 50s. it is an important trend and i think we are trending towards 50% there. liz: it's like we've been slammed in hammer. it's now a $4.36 price here. we like maggie, she's a smart leader, but you can't -- you talk about the dividends? >> it's important to look at the company. in total it has to have appreciation potential....
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Jan 14, 2013
01/13
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economy which is still the biggest economy in the world, if you've got a weak economy, unfortunately, i know you are saying good economy, but some are saying we are going to have a weak economy in 2013, if that's the case, do i want to be high yield? does that make sense to you? >> yeah, it does because high yield you get paid a lot of different ways. high income, risk adjusted return. last year up over 15%. almost as much as equities, but you're still getting paid to take that risk to be in there. global bonds is a win-win-win. you get paid on yield. you get paid on -- for diversification. you get paid on currency risk. so that's a good place to be. and i'm not saying we're in armageddon on the equities side i do like mid caps, but what i think you need to be is make sure just trim back a little bit on equities, and i don't think it's the end of the world. but good economy part is the consumer. we like the consumer because the fed with the quantitative easing is bolstering the consumer through housing, and that's why i think for the consumers, for main street, it's going to feel good
economy which is still the biggest economy in the world, if you've got a weak economy, unfortunately, i know you are saying good economy, but some are saying we are going to have a weak economy in 2013, if that's the case, do i want to be high yield? does that make sense to you? >> yeah, it does because high yield you get paid a lot of different ways. high income, risk adjusted return. last year up over 15%. almost as much as equities, but you're still getting paid to take that risk to be...
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Jan 15, 2013
01/13
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you know, the economy, you know, two steps forward, one step back, and corporate america can't carry the water. it will be difficult for the market, and priced pretty much to perfection at the current level with popular averages, not leaving room for disappointment. liz: hate one step forward, two back -- >> no, the other way. liz: either way, not moving fast. is that at a decent clip? >> actually, that's something we talked about last week on the show, and what we're looking at, again, south africa, right now, the mining situation is getting worse and worse, and -- liz: labor issues? >> the strikes, strikes, labor issues, and a threat that some of the major companies are shutting down the mines until they resolve this. we'll have a shortage in these areas, and, also, seeing platinum taking a bit of a piggy back ride up. it's at the 1680s mirroring where gold is now. silver is joining along for the ride. we're seeing a lot happening with the precious metals. liz: platinum is higher than gold for the first time in ten months. do you care? is that significant? it's 1682 against 1680, t
you know, the economy, you know, two steps forward, one step back, and corporate america can't carry the water. it will be difficult for the market, and priced pretty much to perfection at the current level with popular averages, not leaving room for disappointment. liz: hate one step forward, two back -- >> no, the other way. liz: either way, not moving fast. is that at a decent clip? >> actually, that's something we talked about last week on the show, and what we're looking at,...
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Jan 18, 2013
01/13
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can you not have a couple of people in one room who are going to get your economy right. you need to get the incentives right and need to have the information disbursed. let's talk about the bank regulation part first. i think a lot of what we saw was one a factor of who was on the fed. you had a bunch of academics as cramer mentioned earlier, didn't have that many people who knew about banking, a lot of information coming from wall street. investment banks look a lot different than commercial banks, a lot of different things going on in the sectors so you didn't even have people at the table who really had a sense of what was going on at the economy so i would feel much more comfortable if we take banking regulation and give it to the bank regulators because ultimately i think a lot of the bailouts were about the mistakes made the new york fed, mistakes made at the fed board and they were using bailouts to cover up their own mistakes. aig, all of these cdss were done because the bank approved of cds to create bank capital. they create that had mistake. we can argue wheth
can you not have a couple of people in one room who are going to get your economy right. you need to get the incentives right and need to have the information disbursed. let's talk about the bank regulation part first. i think a lot of what we saw was one a factor of who was on the fed. you had a bunch of academics as cramer mentioned earlier, didn't have that many people who knew about banking, a lot of information coming from wall street. investment banks look a lot different than commercial...
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Jan 18, 2013
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economy, investors 401(k) plans are up, last 12 months significantly. >> do you think there's any pivot point to get the small investor back into the market that's coming? >> that's a good question. i don't know there's a real moment that does it. i can't think of what the big epiphany where everybody says oh i got it, but i think it's just a growing sense of confidence. we needed europe. we needed greece to stop looking like it was -- >> right. >> we needed europe to stabilize broadly. we needed the chinese leadership transition to happen and happen seamlessly. we needed the election to be past here. we needed the start to the fiscal cliff resolution. all of those things are starting to happen. confidence is growing. unemployment is ticking down. so i think it's more a gradual shift. >> right. one of the interesting things about morgan stanley is a couple years ago people were actually predicting your demise, like morgan stanley would not be there, it would have to merge, it didn't have the earnings power. i guess this is proof positive that that wasn't right, that you guys can remain
economy, investors 401(k) plans are up, last 12 months significantly. >> do you think there's any pivot point to get the small investor back into the market that's coming? >> that's a good question. i don't know there's a real moment that does it. i can't think of what the big epiphany where everybody says oh i got it, but i think it's just a growing sense of confidence. we needed europe. we needed greece to stop looking like it was -- >> right. >> we needed europe to...